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In March 2026 the global geopolitical risk index hit its highest level since the 2003 invasion of Iraq

In March 2026 the global geopolitical risk index hit its highest level since the 2003 invasion of IraqLine chart of the monthly geopolitical risk index from January 2019 to October 2026. Until 2021 mostly below 100 (the 1985–2019 average); from 2022 mostly above it. Peaks: Russia's invasion of Ukraine (319.0 in March 2022), the war in Gaza (197.9 in October 2023), the Israel–Iran war (222.5 in June 2025) and US and Israeli strikes on Iran (330.2 in March 2026). A dotted line marks the invasion of Iraq (358.7 in March 2003); the highest since 1985 was October 2001 (512.5).In March 2026 the global geopoliticalrisk index hit its highest level sincethe 2003 invasion of IraqMonthly global geopolitical riskindex (1985–2019 average = 100), January 2019–October 2026150.5Invasion of Iraq: 358.7100US and Israel strikeIran: 330.2Invasion ofUkraine:319.011Israel–Iran war: 222.5The index measures the share of articles about wars, threats of war,nuclear weapons and terrorism in major newspapers, mostly Americanand British: it is press attention, not casualties or economic damage.Peaks before 2019: the Gulf war (January 1991, 379.2), the 9/11attacks (September 2001, 498.6; the highest since 1985, 512.5,in October) and the invasion of Iraq (March 2003, 358.7). Since 2019,also the war in Gaza (October 2023, 197.9) and the Israel–Iran war(June 2025, 222.5).Source: Caldara and Iacoviello, Geopolitical Risk Index ("MeasuringGeopolitical Risk", American Economic Review, 2022)VerDat
In March 2026 the global geopolitical risk index hit its highest level since the 2003 invasion of IraqLine chart of the monthly geopolitical risk index from January 2019 to October 2026. Until 2021 mostly below 100 (the 1985–2019 average); from 2022 mostly above it. Peaks: Russia's invasion of Ukraine (319.0 in March 2022), the war in Gaza (197.9 in October 2023), the Israel–Iran war (222.5 in June 2025) and US and Israeli strikes on Iran (330.2 in March 2026). A dotted line marks the invasion of Iraq (358.7 in March 2003); the highest since 1985 was October 2001 (512.5).In March 2026 the global geopoliticalrisk index hit its highest level sincethe 2003 invasion of IraqMonthly global geopolitical riskindex (1985–2019 average = 100),January 2019–October 2026150.5Invasion of Iraq: 358.7100US and Israel strikeIran: 330.2Invasion ofUkraine:319.011Israel–Iran war: 222.5The index measures the share of articles about wars, threats of war, nuclearweapons and terrorism in major newspapers, mostly American and British: it ispress attention, not casualties or economic damage.Peaks before 2019: the Gulf war (January 1991, 379.2), the 9/11 attacks(September 2001, 498.6; the highest since 1985, 512.5, in October)and the invasion of Iraq (March 2003, 358.7). Since 2019, also the war in Gaza(October 2023, 197.9) and the Israel–Iran war (June 2025, 222.5).Source: Caldara and Iacoviello, Geopolitical Risk Index ("MeasuringGeopolitical Risk", American Economic Review, 2022)VerDat
In March 2026 the global geopolitical risk index hit its highest level since the 2003 invasion of IraqLine chart of the monthly geopolitical risk index from January 2019 to October 2026. Until 2021 mostly below 100 (the 1985–2019 average); from 2022 mostly above it. Peaks: Russia's invasion of Ukraine (319.0 in March 2022), the war in Gaza (197.9 in October 2023), the Israel–Iran war (222.5 in June 2025) and US and Israeli strikes on Iran (330.2 in March 2026). A dotted line marks the invasion of Iraq (358.7 in March 2003); the highest since 1985 was October 2001 (512.5).In March 2026 the global geopoliticalrisk index hit its highest level sincethe 2003 invasion of IraqMonthly global geopolitical riskindex (1985–2019 average = 100),January 2019–October 2026150.5Invasion of Iraq: 358.7100US and Israel strikeIran: 330.2Invasion of Ukraine: 319.011Israel–Iran war: 222.5The index measures the share of articles about wars, threats of war, nuclear weaponsand terrorism in major newspapers, mostly American and British: it is press attention,not casualties or economic damage.Peaks before 2019: the Gulf war (January 1991, 379.2), the 9/11 attacks (September2001, 498.6; the highest since 1985, 512.5, in October) and the invasion of Iraq(March 2003, 358.7). Since 2019, also the war in Gaza (October 2023, 197.9)and the Israel–Iran war (June 2025, 222.5).Source: Caldara and Iacoviello, Geopolitical Risk Index ("Measuring GeopoliticalRisk", American Economic Review, 2022)VerDat
In March 2026 the global geopolitical risk index hit its highest level since the 2003 invasion of IraqLine chart of the monthly geopolitical risk index from January 2019 to October 2026. Until 2021 mostly below 100 (the 1985–2019 average); from 2022 mostly above it. Peaks: Russia's invasion of Ukraine (319.0 in March 2022), the war in Gaza (197.9 in October 2023), the Israel–Iran war (222.5 in June 2025) and US and Israeli strikes on Iran (330.2 in March 2026). A dotted line marks the invasion of Iraq (358.7 in March 2003); the highest since 1985 was October 2001 (512.5).In March 2026 the global geopoliticalrisk index hit its highest level sincethe 2003 invasion of IraqMonthly global geopolitical risk index (1985–2019 average = 100),January 2019–October 2026150.5Invasion of Iraq: 358.7100US and Israel strikeIran: 330.2Invasion of Ukraine: 319.011Israel–Iran war: 222.5The index measures the share of articles about wars, threats of war, nuclear weaponsand terrorism in major newspapers, mostly American and British: it is press attention, notcasualties or economic damage.Peaks before 2019: the Gulf war (January 1991, 379.2), the 9/11 attacks (September 2001,498.6; the highest since 1985, 512.5, in October) and the invasion of Iraq (March 2003,358.7). Since 2019, also the war in Gaza (October 2023, 197.9) and the Israel–Iran war(June 2025, 222.5).Source: Caldara and Iacoviello, Geopolitical Risk Index ("Measuring Geopolitical Risk",American Economic Review, 2022)VerDat
In March 2026 the global geopolitical risk index hit its highest level since the 2003 invasion of IraqLine chart of the monthly geopolitical risk index from January 2019 to October 2026. Until 2021 mostly below 100 (the 1985–2019 average); from 2022 mostly above it. Peaks: Russia's invasion of Ukraine (319.0 in March 2022), the war in Gaza (197.9 in October 2023), the Israel–Iran war (222.5 in June 2025) and US and Israeli strikes on Iran (330.2 in March 2026). A dotted line marks the invasion of Iraq (358.7 in March 2003); the highest since 1985 was October 2001 (512.5).In March 2026 the global geopolitical risk indexhit its highest level since the 2003 invasion of IraqMonthly global geopolitical risk index (1985–2019 average = 100),January 2019–October 2026150.5Invasion of Iraq: 358.7100US and Israel strikeIran: 330.2Invasion of Ukraine: 319.011Israel–Iran war: 222.5The index measures the share of articles about wars, threats of war, nuclear weaponsand terrorism in major newspapers, mostly American and British: it is press attention, notcasualties or economic damage.Peaks before 2019: the Gulf war (January 1991, 379.2), the 9/11 attacks (September 2001, 498.6;the highest since 1985, 512.5, in October) and the invasion of Iraq (March 2003, 358.7). Since 2019,also the war in Gaza (October 2023, 197.9) and the Israel–Iran war (June 2025, 222.5).Source: Caldara and Iacoviello, Geopolitical Risk Index ("Measuring Geopolitical Risk", AmericanEconomic Review, 2022)VerDat
In March 2026 the global geopolitical risk index hit its highest level since the 2003 invasion of IraqLine chart of the monthly geopolitical risk index from January 2019 to October 2026. Until 2021 mostly below 100 (the 1985–2019 average); from 2022 mostly above it. Peaks: Russia's invasion of Ukraine (319.0 in March 2022), the war in Gaza (197.9 in October 2023), the Israel–Iran war (222.5 in June 2025) and US and Israeli strikes on Iran (330.2 in March 2026). A dotted line marks the invasion of Iraq (358.7 in March 2003); the highest since 1985 was October 2001 (512.5).In March 2026 the global geopolitical risk indexhit its highest level since the 2003 invasion of IraqMonthly global geopolitical risk index (1985–2019 average = 100),January 2019–October 2026150.5Invasion of Iraq: 358.7Reference average: 100US and Israel strikeIran: 330.2Invasion of Ukraine: 319.011Israel–Iran war: 222.5The index measures the share of articles about wars, threats of war, nuclear weapons and terrorism in majornewspapers, mostly American and British: it is press attention, not casualties or economic damage.Peaks before 2019: the Gulf war (January 1991, 379.2), the 9/11 attacks (September 2001, 498.6;the highest since 1985, 512.5, in October) and the invasion of Iraq (March 2003, 358.7). Since 2019, alsothe war in Gaza (October 2023, 197.9) and the Israel–Iran war (June 2025, 222.5).Source: Caldara and Iacoviello, Geopolitical Risk Index ("Measuring Geopolitical Risk", American EconomicReview, 2022)VerDat
In March 2026 the global geopolitical risk index hit its highest level since the 2003 invasion of IraqLine chart of the monthly geopolitical risk index from January 2019 to October 2026. Until 2021 mostly below 100 (the 1985–2019 average); from 2022 mostly above it. Peaks: Russia's invasion of Ukraine (319.0 in March 2022), the war in Gaza (197.9 in October 2023), the Israel–Iran war (222.5 in June 2025) and US and Israeli strikes on Iran (330.2 in March 2026). A dotted line marks the invasion of Iraq (358.7 in March 2003); the highest since 1985 was October 2001 (512.5).In March 2026 the global geopolitical risk indexhit its highest level since the 2003 invasion of IraqMonthly global geopolitical risk index (1985–2019 average = 100),January 2019–October 2026150.5Invasion of Iraq: 358.7Reference average: 100Invasion of Ukraine319.0US and Israel strikeIran: 330.211Israel–Iran war: 222.5The index measures the share of articles about wars, threats of war, nuclear weapons and terrorism in majornewspapers, mostly American and British: it is press attention, not casualties or economic damage.Peaks before 2019: the Gulf war (January 1991, 379.2), the 9/11 attacks (September 2001, 498.6; the highestsince 1985, 512.5, in October) and the invasion of Iraq (March 2003, 358.7). Since 2019, also the war in Gaza(October 2023, 197.9) and the Israel–Iran war (June 2025, 222.5).Source: Caldara and Iacoviello, Geopolitical Risk Index ("Measuring Geopolitical Risk", American Economic Review,2022)VerDat
In March 2026 the global geopolitical risk index hit its highest level since the 2003 invasion of IraqLine chart of the monthly geopolitical risk index from January 2019 to October 2026. Until 2021 mostly below 100 (the 1985–2019 average); from 2022 mostly above it. Peaks: Russia's invasion of Ukraine (319.0 in March 2022), the war in Gaza (197.9 in October 2023), the Israel–Iran war (222.5 in June 2025) and US and Israeli strikes on Iran (330.2 in March 2026). A dotted line marks the invasion of Iraq (358.7 in March 2003); the highest since 1985 was October 2001 (512.5).In March 2026 the global geopolitical risk indexhit its highest level since the 2003 invasion of IraqMonthly global geopolitical risk index (1985–2019 average = 100),January 2019–October 2026150.5Invasion of Iraq: 358.7Reference average: 100Israel–Iran war222.5US and Israel strike Iran: 330.2Invasion of Ukraine: 319.0The index measures the share of articles about wars, threats of war, nuclear weapons and terrorism in major newspapers,mostly American and British: it is press attention, not casualties or economic damage.Peaks before 2019: the Gulf war (January 1991, 379.2), the 9/11 attacks (September 2001, 498.6; the highestsince 1985, 512.5, in October) and the invasion of Iraq (March 2003, 358.7). Since 2019, also the war in Gaza (October2023, 197.9) and the Israel–Iran war (June 2025, 222.5).Source: Caldara and Iacoviello, Geopolitical Risk Index ("Measuring Geopolitical Risk", American Economic Review,2022)VerDat
In March 2026 the global geopolitical risk index hit its highest level since the 2003 invasion of IraqLine chart of the monthly geopolitical risk index from January 2019 to October 2026. Until 2021 mostly below 100 (the 1985–2019 average); from 2022 mostly above it. Peaks: Russia's invasion of Ukraine (319.0 in March 2022), the war in Gaza (197.9 in October 2023), the Israel–Iran war (222.5 in June 2025) and US and Israeli strikes on Iran (330.2 in March 2026). A dotted line marks the invasion of Iraq (358.7 in March 2003); the highest since 1985 was October 2001 (512.5).In March 2026 the global geopolitical risk indexhit its highest level since the 2003 invasion of IraqMonthly global geopolitical risk index (1985–2019 average = 100),January 2019–October 2026150.5Invasion of Iraq: 358.7Reference average: 100Israel–Iran war222.5US and Israel strike Iran: 330.2Invasion of Ukraine: 319.0The index measures the share of articles about wars, threats of war, nuclear weapons and terrorism in major newspapers,mostly American and British: it is press attention, not casualties or economic damage.Peaks before 2019: the Gulf war (January 1991, 379.2), the 9/11 attacks (September 2001, 498.6; the highest since 1985,512.5, in October) and the invasion of Iraq (March 2003, 358.7). Since 2019, also the war in Gaza (October 2023, 197.9)and the Israel–Iran war (June 2025, 222.5).Source: Caldara and Iacoviello, Geopolitical Risk Index ("Measuring Geopolitical Risk", American EconomicReview, 2022)VerDat
In March 2026 the global geopolitical risk index hit its highest level since the 2003 invasion of IraqLine chart of the monthly geopolitical risk index from January 2019 to October 2026. Until 2021 mostly below 100 (the 1985–2019 average); from 2022 mostly above it. Peaks: Russia's invasion of Ukraine (319.0 in March 2022), the war in Gaza (197.9 in October 2023), the Israel–Iran war (222.5 in June 2025) and US and Israeli strikes on Iran (330.2 in March 2026). A dotted line marks the invasion of Iraq (358.7 in March 2003); the highest since 1985 was October 2001 (512.5).In March 2026 the global geopolitical risk indexhit its highest level since the 2003 invasion of IraqMonthly global geopolitical risk index (1985–2019 average = 100), January 2019–October 2026150.5Invasion of Iraq: 358.7Reference average: 100Israel–Iran war222.5US and Israel strike Iran: 330.2Invasion of Ukraine: 319.0The index measures the share of articles about wars, threats of war, nuclear weapons and terrorism in major newspapers, mostlyAmerican and British: it is press attention, not casualties or economic damage.Peaks before 2019: the Gulf war (January 1991, 379.2), the 9/11 attacks (September 2001, 498.6; the highest since 1985, 512.5,in October) and the invasion of Iraq (March 2003, 358.7). Since 2019, also the war in Gaza (October 2023, 197.9)and the Israel–Iran war (June 2025, 222.5).Source: Caldara and Iacoviello, Geopolitical Risk Index ("Measuring Geopolitical Risk", American Economic Review,2022)VerDat
In March 2026 the global geopolitical risk index hit its highest level since the 2003 invasion of IraqLine chart of the monthly geopolitical risk index from January 2019 to October 2026. Until 2021 mostly below 100 (the 1985–2019 average); from 2022 mostly above it. Peaks: Russia's invasion of Ukraine (319.0 in March 2022), the war in Gaza (197.9 in October 2023), the Israel–Iran war (222.5 in June 2025) and US and Israeli strikes on Iran (330.2 in March 2026). A dotted line marks the invasion of Iraq (358.7 in March 2003); the highest since 1985 was October 2001 (512.5).In March 2026 the global geopolitical risk indexhit its highest level since the 2003 invasion of IraqMonthly global geopolitical risk index (1985–2019 average = 100), January 2019–October 2026150.5Invasion of Iraq: 358.7Reference average: 100Israel–Iran war222.5US and Israel strike Iran: 330.2Invasion of Ukraine: 319.0The index measures the share of articles about wars, threats of war, nuclear weapons and terrorism in major newspapers, mostly Americanand British: it is press attention, not casualties or economic damage.Peaks before 2019: the Gulf war (January 1991, 379.2), the 9/11 attacks (September 2001, 498.6; the highest since 1985, 512.5, in October)and the invasion of Iraq (March 2003, 358.7). Since 2019, also the war in Gaza (October 2023, 197.9) and the Israel–Iran war (June 2025,222.5).Source: Caldara and Iacoviello, Geopolitical Risk Index ("Measuring Geopolitical Risk", American Economic Review, 2022)VerDat
In March 2026 the global geopolitical risk index hit its highest level since the 2003 invasion of IraqLine chart of the monthly geopolitical risk index from January 2019 to October 2026. Until 2021 mostly below 100 (the 1985–2019 average); from 2022 mostly above it. Peaks: Russia's invasion of Ukraine (319.0 in March 2022), the war in Gaza (197.9 in October 2023), the Israel–Iran war (222.5 in June 2025) and US and Israeli strikes on Iran (330.2 in March 2026). A dotted line marks the invasion of Iraq (358.7 in March 2003); the highest since 1985 was October 2001 (512.5).In March 2026 the global geopolitical risk indexhit its highest level since the 2003 invasion of IraqMonthly global geopolitical risk index (1985–2019 average = 100), January 2019–October 2026150.5Invasion of Iraq: 358.7Reference average: 100Israel–Iran war222.5US and Israel strike Iran: 330.2Invasion of Ukraine: 319.0The index measures the share of articles about wars, threats of war, nuclear weapons and terrorism in major newspapers, mostly American and British: it ispress attention, not casualties or economic damage.Peaks before 2019: the Gulf war (January 1991, 379.2), the 9/11 attacks (September 2001, 498.6; the highest since 1985, 512.5, in October)and the invasion of Iraq (March 2003, 358.7). Since 2019, also the war in Gaza (October 2023, 197.9) and the Israel–Iran war (June 2025, 222.5).Source: Caldara and Iacoviello, Geopolitical Risk Index ("Measuring Geopolitical Risk", American Economic Review, 2022)VerDat
Line chart of the monthly geopolitical risk index from January 2019 to October 2026. Until 2021 mostly below 100 (the 1985–2019 average); from 2022 mostly above it. Peaks: Russia's invasion of Ukraine (319.0 in March 2022), the war in Gaza (197.9 in October 2023), the Israel–Iran war (222.5 in June 2025) and US and Israeli strikes on Iran (330.2 in March 2026). A dotted line marks the invasion of Iraq (358.7 in March 2003); the highest since 1985 was October 2001 (512.5).
Geopolitical risk (index (1985–2019 average = 100))
PeriodValue
2019-0187.42
2019-0296.80
2019-0382.33
2019-0479.25
2019-05106
2019-06107
2019-0793.52
2019-08103
2019-0990.37
2019-1097.84
2019-1173.08
2019-1274.28
2020-01138
2020-0275.96
2020-0381.54
2020-0469.34
2020-0568.51
2020-0671.23
2020-0766.47
2020-0865.47
2020-0980.38
2020-1076.08
2020-1170.07
2020-1264.07
2021-0177.42
2021-0273.96
2021-0378.62
2021-0488.17
2021-0593.01
2021-0674.13
2021-0758.42
2021-0889.49
2021-0980.70
2021-1079.03
2021-1186.57
2021-12105
2022-01139
2022-02216
2022-03319
2022-04191
2022-05142
2022-06131
2022-07117
2022-08133
2022-09132
2022-10143
2022-11117
2022-12111
2023-01104
2023-02121
2023-03105
2023-04107
2023-05108
2023-06111
2023-07107
2023-08101
2023-0998.63
2023-10198
2023-11157
2023-12142
2024-01160
2024-02147
2024-03133
2024-04164
2024-05131
2024-06113
2024-0792.39
2024-08141
2024-09130
2024-10131
2024-11129
2024-12142
2025-01113
2025-02137
2025-03176
2025-04141
2025-05167
2025-06223
2025-07133
2025-08139
2025-09127
2025-10155
2025-11105
2025-12132
2026-01168
2026-02122
2026-03330
2026-04253
2026-05204
2026-06178
2026-07169
2026-08126
2026-09156
2026-10151
Highest month of each year (index (1985–2019 average = 100))
PeriodValue
1985149
1986148
1987121
1988119
1989113
1990250
1991379
1992103
1993129
1994120
1995108
199688.20
199762.84
199897.02
1999106
200079.48
2001513
2002176
2003359
2004154
2005166
2006147
2007112
200892.37
200992.95
201097.20
2011137
201296.02
2013100
2014139
2015151
2016118
2017139
2018126
2019107
2020138
2021105
2022319
2023198
2024164
2025223
2026*330
January–October average of each year (index (1985–2019 average = 100))
PeriodValue
1985111
1986111
1987101
198889.94
198989.45
1990114
1991159
199283.38
1993106
1994101
199588.44
199676.38
199750.73
199867.77
199974.37
200059.85
2001148
2002154
2003187
2004132
2005104
2006107
200794.01
200880.29
200982.22
201081.81
201191.26
201282.15
201384.83
2014103
201597.25
201699.90
2017111
2018101
201994.40
202079.34
202179.29
2022166
2023116
2024134
2025151
2026186
CSV

After US and Israeli strikes on Iran began on February 28th, it reached 330.2 in March: 3.3 times its average and above Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (319.0). Since 1985 only 1991, 2001 and 2003 had a higher month. From January to October, 2026 averages 185.6, nearly level with 2003's record (186.8).

Notes

  • How to read it: 100 is the 1985–2019 average; 200 means the share of articles about geopolitical risks was twice that average. No month of 2026 fell below 100: the lowest was February (121.6); October 2026, the latest, was 150.5.
  • Index by Dario Caldara and Matteo Iacoviello, “Measuring Geopolitical Risk”, American Economic Review 112(4), 2022. Their historical index since 1900 uses fewer newspapers and another base: it is not compared with this one. The latest months may be revised when the source updates the series.
  • Years are compared over the same months (January to October), because 2026 is not over. The index measures attention to conflicts, not their impact on the economy.

The chart's figures come from queries to the official sources cited below, frozen on the date shown. The text was written with AI assistance; every figure it cites is computed from those data and checked automatically.

Source and scope

  • World: geopolitical risk index since 1900

    Regional · Caldara and Iacoviello, Geopolitical Risk Index ("Measuring Geopolitical Risk", American Economic Review, 2022)

    Data normalized on Nov 6, 2026 · query frozen on Nov 6, 2026

    Official sourceMethodology and records

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